Causal Analysis in Economics: Methods and Applications
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we apply the method of inferred causation for macroeconomic analysis. First we introduce briefly the theory of inferred causation developed by Pearl and Verma (1991). We apply this method to the identification of structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. In an example of monetary policy analysis we demonstrate how causal information embedded in the data can be used to identify the SVAR. We use the two step procedure developed in Chen and Hsiao (2007) for time series causal models (TSCM) to derive two structural Phillips curves for the wage-price spiral. We demonstrate that while in most structural equations the causal-effect relations are presumed, using the method of inferred causation we can derived the causal-effect relation in the structural equations from the data. JEL Classification: C1,C51, E52, J3
منابع مشابه
Causal Simultaneous Relation Between Economic Growth, Health Expenditure and CO2 Emissions in MENA Countries
Introduction: Economic growth is one of the most important goals of a country and has a close relationship with health expenditures and emissions of environmental pollutants. Health expenditures and environmental quality are also among the other important issues. On the one hand, environmental problems have become a serious threat to humankind in recent years. On the other hand, meaningful heal...
متن کاملCausal inference in economics and marketing.
This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, pot...
متن کاملA Dynamic analysis of Health care supply and demand management: A Case Study Hospitals of Social Security Organization
Background: The outlook for hospital care is changing rapidly. Supply and demand stimuli in the health service system are changing dramatically. The health department of the Social Security Administration has also been challenged by the growing number of patients. This study was conducted to help this organization with the aim of designing a conceptual causal model of the interaction between su...
متن کاملKoreaâs Growth, Trade and Energy Imports: New Evidence for Regional Comprehensive Partnership Analysis
The paper uses economic and energy data analysis and econometric modeling to study the prospects and challenges of Koreaâs 2003 FTA Roadmap (MOFAT 2013) in the form of potential comprehensive partnerships with its major trade and energy partners. It first reviews Koreaâs international economic and trade relations in recent years with a focus on its major merchandise export destinations an...
متن کاملThe Global Financial Crisis, Economic Integration and China’s Exports: A Causal and Predictive Analysis
Recent strong growth of China’s exports has elevated the country to a rising global economic power and caused geo-political concern to policy-makers in the country and its trading partners world-wide. What are the determinants of this growth, how has it affected major economies in ASEAN (World Bank, 2009) in particular, and what kind of evidence-based responses are required and appropriate? The...
متن کاملCO2 Emissions, Health Expenditures and Economic Growth in Iran: Apply Dynamic Simultaneous-Equations Models
Introduction: The causal dynamics between environment, health expenditures and economic growth has recently started to be studied in the economics literature for both developing and developed countries. Methods: This study examines the causal relationship between CO2 emissions, health expenditures and economic growth using dynamic simultaneous-equations models for Iran over the period 1972-2...
متن کامل